Important dates:
Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)
Various 7-day average trends
Estimated Active, split by Age group: Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with a nontrivial proportion of cases being long-term / on-going.
Definitions
Case fatality rate, etc: Need to add definitions and compute to table
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 25 2021 | 11439 | 51252 | 391 | 106 | 78 | 103 |
| April 26 2021 | 11439 | 51278 | 391 | 106 | 66 | 101 |
| April 27 2021 | 11441 | 51319 | 392 | 107 | 58 | 97 |
| April 28 2021 | 11450 | 51386 | 392 | 107 | 59 | 96 |
| April 29 2021 | 11459 | 51433 | 393 | 108 | 68 | 98 |
| April 30 2021 | 11465 | 51503 | 392 | 108 | 64 | 92 |
| May 01 2021 | 11465 | 51561 | 392 | 108 | 55 | 82 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 3 | 1.0 | 12.7% | 7 | 0.06% | 11 | 0.1% |
| 10-19 | 2 | 1.1 | 14.5% | 8 | 0.06% | 11 | 0.08% |
| 20-29 | 0 | 1.3 | 23.6% | 13 | 0.06% | 21 | 0.1% |
| 30-39 | 0 | 0.9 | 29.1% | 16 | 0.12% | 19 | 0.14% |
| 40-49 | -2 | 0.0 | 3.6% | 2 | 0.02% | 7 | 0.07% |
| 50-59 | 0 | 0.6 | 9.1% | 5 | 0.04% | 7 | 0.06% |
| 60-69 | -1 | 0.3 | 10.9% | 6 | 0.05% | 8 | 0.07% |
| 70+ | -2 | -0.3 | -3.6% | -2 | -0.02% | -2 | -0.02% |
| All ages | 0 | 4.9 | 100% | 55 | 0.05% | 82 | 0.08% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 25 2021 | 7288 | 30083 | 250 | 94 | 30 | 66 |
| April 26 2021 | 7288 | 30107 | 251 | 94 | 29 | 66 |
| April 27 2021 | 7295 | 30106 | 253 | 94 | 32 | 59 |
| April 28 2021 | 7299 | 30145 | 253 | 94 | 36 | 50 |
| April 29 2021 | 7304 | 30208 | 253 | 94 | 41 | 46 |
| April 30 2021 | 7312 | 30244 | 254 | 94 | 38 | 53 |
| May 01 2021 | 7325 | 30277 | 254 | 94 | 46 | 62 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 1 | 0.4 | 8.7% | 4 | 0.05% | 7 | 0.09% |
| 10-19 | 1 | 1.4 | 30.4% | 14 | 0.17% | 17 | 0.2% |
| 20-29 | 1 | 0.1 | 2.2% | 1 | 0.01% | 2 | 0.03% |
| 30-39 | 1 | 1.1 | 23.9% | 11 | 0.13% | 13 | 0.15% |
| 40-49 | 2 | 0.6 | 6.5% | 3 | 0.04% | 5 | 0.06% |
| 50-59 | 7 | 1.1 | 17.4% | 8 | 0.08% | 10 | 0.1% |
| 60-69 | 0 | 0.3 | 6.5% | 3 | 0.04% | 6 | 0.07% |
| 70+ | 0 | 0.1 | 4.3% | 2 | 0.03% | 2 | 0.03% |
| All ages | 13 | 5.3 | 100% | 46 | 0.07% | 62 | 0.1% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 25 2021 | 5684 | 19955 | 263 | 77 | 59 | 82 |
| April 26 2021 | 5685 | 19978 | 263 | 77 | 50 | 80 |
| April 27 2021 | 5686 | 19987 | 264 | 78 | 49 | 78 |
| April 28 2021 | 5701 | 20012 | 266 | 81 | 53 | 87 |
| April 29 2021 | 5704 | 20020 | 266 | 81 | 49 | 79 |
| April 30 2021 | 5713 | 20051 | 266 | 81 | 58 | 78 |
| May 01 2021 | 5727 | 20069 | 266 | 82 | 66 | 90 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 0 | 0.3 | 4.5% | 3 | 0.06% | 5 | 0.09% |
| 10-19 | 3 | 1.7 | 24.2% | 16 | 0.29% | 19 | 0.35% |
| 20-29 | 3 | 0.9 | 10.6% | 7 | 0.15% | 9 | 0.2% |
| 30-39 | 3 | 1.1 | 19.7% | 13 | 0.24% | 16 | 0.29% |
| 40-49 | 2 | 0.9 | 13.6% | 9 | 0.18% | 12 | 0.24% |
| 50-59 | 0 | 0.4 | 7.6% | 5 | 0.07% | 9 | 0.13% |
| 60-69 | 3 | 1.0 | 12.1% | 8 | 0.13% | 13 | 0.21% |
| 70+ | 0 | 0.6 | 7.6% | 5 | 0.08% | 7 | 0.11% |
| All ages | 14 | 6.9 | 100% | 66 | 0.15% | 90 | 0.2% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 25 2021 | 12617 | 57123 | 398 | 80 | 80 | 102 |
| April 26 2021 | 12627 | 57173 | 398 | 80 | 88 | 112 |
| April 27 2021 | 12644 | 57287 | 399 | 81 | 97 | 122 |
| April 28 2021 | 12658 | 57376 | 400 | 81 | 111 | 128 |
| April 29 2021 | 12670 | 57457 | 400 | 81 | 123 | 133 |
| April 30 2021 | 12680 | 57564 | 403 | 81 | 124 | 141 |
| May 01 2021 | 12702 | 57668 | 403 | 81 | 137 | 155 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 1 | 0.7 | 6.6% | 9 | 0.08% | 13 | 0.11% |
| 10-19 | 10 | 4.6 | 37.2% | 51 | 0.31% | 56 | 0.34% |
| 20-29 | 1 | 1.4 | 10.9% | 15 | 0.07% | 16 | 0.08% |
| 30-39 | 4 | 2.3 | 19% | 26 | 0.19% | 33 | 0.24% |
| 40-49 | 3 | 1.4 | 11.7% | 16 | 0.12% | 16 | 0.12% |
| 50-59 | 2 | 1.0 | 6.6% | 9 | 0.06% | 9 | 0.06% |
| 60-69 | 0 | 0.3 | 5.8% | 8 | 0.06% | 8 | 0.06% |
| 70+ | 1 | 0.4 | 2.2% | 3 | 0.02% | 4 | 0.03% |
| All ages | 22 | 12.1 | 100% | 137 | 0.12% | 155 | 0.13% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 25 2021 | 43945 | 340931 | 1389 | 295 | 643 | 935 |
| April 26 2021 | 43969 | 341237 | 1392 | 295 | 580 | 908 |
| April 27 2021 | 44017 | 341472 | 1394 | 295 | 576 | 910 |
| April 28 2021 | 44063 | 341840 | 1399 | 297 | 557 | 859 |
| April 29 2021 | 44141 | 342399 | 1403 | 299 | 582 | 839 |
| April 30 2021 | 44216 | 342980 | 1410 | 299 | 613 | 827 |
| May 01 2021 | 44259 | 343438 | 1413 | 302 | 593 | 818 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 5 | 5.3 | 8.8% | 52 | 0.09% | 63 | 0.1% |
| 10-19 | 10 | 10.1 | 21.1% | 125 | 0.18% | 180 | 0.25% |
| 20-29 | 9 | 12.9 | 26.8% | 159 | 0.15% | 216 | 0.21% |
| 30-39 | 6 | 8.1 | 15.2% | 90 | 0.12% | 125 | 0.16% |
| 40-49 | 7 | 7.0 | 12.8% | 76 | 0.12% | 104 | 0.16% |
| 50-59 | 4 | 4.7 | 8.4% | 50 | 0.08% | 67 | 0.1% |
| 60-69 | 2 | 2.7 | 4.7% | 28 | 0.05% | 45 | 0.08% |
| 70+ | 0 | 1.9 | 2.2% | 13 | 0.03% | 18 | 0.04% |
| All ages | 43 | 52.7 | 100% | 593 | 0.11% | 818 | 0.15% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 25 2021 | 594682 | 2828164 | 28969 | 6756 | 6178 | 9374 |
| April 26 2021 | 595049 | 2831052 | 29003 | 6756 | 5836 | 9339 |
| April 27 2021 | 595864 | 2833669 | 29103 | 6773 | 5924 | 9232 |
| April 28 2021 | 596552 | 2838104 | 29182 | 6807 | 6094 | 8991 |
| April 29 2021 | 597358 | 2842843 | 29255 | 6815 | 6527 | 8854 |
| April 30 2021 | 598147 | 2846536 | 29307 | 6823 | 6511 | 8934 |
| May 01 2021 | 598822 | 2850492 | 29382 | 6841 | 6560 | 8882 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 62 | 53.3 | 8.5% | 559 | 0.09% | 742 | 0.12% |
| 10-19 | 178 | 136.0 | 21.3% | 1396 | 0.18% | 1787 | 0.24% |
| 20-29 | 96 | 104.1 | 16.6% | 1092 | 0.14% | 1475 | 0.19% |
| 30-39 | 111 | 105.0 | 16% | 1050 | 0.14% | 1440 | 0.19% |
| 40-49 | 86 | 92.1 | 14% | 918 | 0.13% | 1277 | 0.18% |
| 50-59 | 72 | 79.4 | 12.2% | 803 | 0.1% | 1117 | 0.14% |
| 60-69 | 48 | 51.7 | 7.5% | 490 | 0.06% | 681 | 0.09% |
| 70+ | 22 | 26.7 | 3.8% | 252 | 0.04% | 363 | 0.06% |
| All ages | 675 | 648.4 | 100% | 6560 | 0.11% | 8882 | 0.15% |
Source: Minnesota’s safe learning plan is very direct, very precise, with scientific basis. Determined on a local level.
Definitions (corresponding / similar to MN plan):
and a set of SUGGESTED GUIDELINES based on the Minnesota reference:
| Criteria 2wk | Criteria 2wk20s | Criteria daily7 | Suggestion |
|---|---|---|---|
| > 25 | > 30 | – | urge extra caution |
| > 28 | > 45* | decreasing | consider staying home and watching class recordings (rather than attending in-person) and visit online OH |
| > 28 | > 45* | steady to increasing | strongly encouraged to stay home and watch class recordings (attend in-person only as absolutely needed) and visit online OH. |
| > 30 | > 50 | decreasing | ’’ ’’ ’’ |
| > 30 | > 50 | steady to increasing | based on the cited criteria from Minnesota, safety of in-person classes no longer seems supportable |
*adjusted to reflect a corresponding proportion of the top cut-off.
| Eau Claire 2wk | Eau Claire 2wk10s | Eau Claire 2wk20s | Eau Claire current daily7 | Eau Claire past daily7 | Eau Claire posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.8 | 8.1 | 10 | 4.9 | 8.1 | 8.3% |
Important Resources:
| Chippewa 2wk | Chippewa current daily7 | Chippewa past daily7 | Chippewa posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9.6 | 5.3 | 5.4 | 14.5% |
| Barron 2wk | Barron current daily7 | Barron past daily7 | Barron posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19.9 | 6.9 | 6.7 | 26.5% |
| La Crosse 2wk | La Crosse 2wk10s | La Crosse 2wk20s | La Crosse current daily7 | La Crosse past daily7 | La Crosse posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13.1 | 33.8 | 7.5 | 12.1 | 4.9 | 12.6% |
| Dane 2wk | Dane 2wk10s | Dane 2wk20s | Dane current daily7 | Dane past daily7 | Dane posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | 25.3 | 20.8 | 52.7 | 70.9 | 11.2% |
| Wisconsin 2wk | Wisconsin 2wk10s | Wisconsin 2wk20s | Wisconsin current daily7 | Wisconsin past daily7 | Wisconsin posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15.3 | 23.6 | 19.5 | 648.4 | 714.9 | 14.9% |
Important Resources:
I devised plots that are similar to those found, for example, at the following locations:
Masks Should I wear a mask in enclosed public spaces? Unequivocally, YES. References for reasoning, using a current (as of July 8) accumulation of over 70 references. A few of my favorites (modeling-wise) are:
A couple more in the works:
Media articles / letters summarizing scientific publications:
Predicting cumulative deaths in state
[1] "The number of cumulative deaths, at a lag of 21 days, are approximately 0.8 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.67 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2021-05-23 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 6135"
Comparing county-wide active case rates in counties with colleges