Daily

Column

Important dates:

  • (purple dashed lines) delineating Friday summaries on: 2020-05-15 to 2020-05-22, 2020-10-16 to 2020-10-23, 2020-11-20 to2020-11-27.

Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)

Eau Claire

Chippewa

Barron

La Crosse

Dane

Wisconsin

Column

Estimated Active, split by Age group: Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with a nontrivial proportion of cases being long-term / on-going.

  • First plot is conservative (10-day total) estimate
  • Second plot is 14-day total used in MN Safe-Learning plan

Eau Claire

Chippewa

Barron

La Crosse

Dane

Wisconsin

By the Numbers

Column

Definitions

Case fatality rate, etc: Need to add definitions and compute to table

Eau Claire

Eau Claire cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
April 25 2021 11439 51252 391 106 78 103
April 26 2021 11439 51278 391 106 66 101
April 27 2021 11441 51319 392 107 58 97
April 28 2021 11450 51386 392 107 59 96
April 29 2021 11459 51433 393 108 68 98
April 30 2021 11465 51503 392 108 64 92
May 01 2021 11465 51561 392 108 55 82
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 3 1.0 12.7% 7 0.06% 11 0.1%
10-19 2 1.1 14.5% 8 0.06% 11 0.08%
20-29 0 1.3 23.6% 13 0.06% 21 0.1%
30-39 0 0.9 29.1% 16 0.12% 19 0.14%
40-49 -2 0.0 3.6% 2 0.02% 7 0.07%
50-59 0 0.6 9.1% 5 0.04% 7 0.06%
60-69 -1 0.3 10.9% 6 0.05% 8 0.07%
70+ -2 -0.3 -3.6% -2 -0.02% -2 -0.02%
All ages 0 4.9 100% 55 0.05% 82 0.08%

Chippewa

Chippewa cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
April 25 2021 7288 30083 250 94 30 66
April 26 2021 7288 30107 251 94 29 66
April 27 2021 7295 30106 253 94 32 59
April 28 2021 7299 30145 253 94 36 50
April 29 2021 7304 30208 253 94 41 46
April 30 2021 7312 30244 254 94 38 53
May 01 2021 7325 30277 254 94 46 62
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 1 0.4 8.7% 4 0.05% 7 0.09%
10-19 1 1.4 30.4% 14 0.17% 17 0.2%
20-29 1 0.1 2.2% 1 0.01% 2 0.03%
30-39 1 1.1 23.9% 11 0.13% 13 0.15%
40-49 2 0.6 6.5% 3 0.04% 5 0.06%
50-59 7 1.1 17.4% 8 0.08% 10 0.1%
60-69 0 0.3 6.5% 3 0.04% 6 0.07%
70+ 0 0.1 4.3% 2 0.03% 2 0.03%
All ages 13 5.3 100% 46 0.07% 62 0.1%

Barron

Barron cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
April 25 2021 5684 19955 263 77 59 82
April 26 2021 5685 19978 263 77 50 80
April 27 2021 5686 19987 264 78 49 78
April 28 2021 5701 20012 266 81 53 87
April 29 2021 5704 20020 266 81 49 79
April 30 2021 5713 20051 266 81 58 78
May 01 2021 5727 20069 266 82 66 90
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 0 0.3 4.5% 3 0.06% 5 0.09%
10-19 3 1.7 24.2% 16 0.29% 19 0.35%
20-29 3 0.9 10.6% 7 0.15% 9 0.2%
30-39 3 1.1 19.7% 13 0.24% 16 0.29%
40-49 2 0.9 13.6% 9 0.18% 12 0.24%
50-59 0 0.4 7.6% 5 0.07% 9 0.13%
60-69 3 1.0 12.1% 8 0.13% 13 0.21%
70+ 0 0.6 7.6% 5 0.08% 7 0.11%
All ages 14 6.9 100% 66 0.15% 90 0.2%

La Crosse

La Crosse cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
April 25 2021 12617 57123 398 80 80 102
April 26 2021 12627 57173 398 80 88 112
April 27 2021 12644 57287 399 81 97 122
April 28 2021 12658 57376 400 81 111 128
April 29 2021 12670 57457 400 81 123 133
April 30 2021 12680 57564 403 81 124 141
May 01 2021 12702 57668 403 81 137 155
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 1 0.7 6.6% 9 0.08% 13 0.11%
10-19 10 4.6 37.2% 51 0.31% 56 0.34%
20-29 1 1.4 10.9% 15 0.07% 16 0.08%
30-39 4 2.3 19% 26 0.19% 33 0.24%
40-49 3 1.4 11.7% 16 0.12% 16 0.12%
50-59 2 1.0 6.6% 9 0.06% 9 0.06%
60-69 0 0.3 5.8% 8 0.06% 8 0.06%
70+ 1 0.4 2.2% 3 0.02% 4 0.03%
All ages 22 12.1 100% 137 0.12% 155 0.13%

Dane

Dane cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
April 25 2021 43945 340931 1389 295 643 935
April 26 2021 43969 341237 1392 295 580 908
April 27 2021 44017 341472 1394 295 576 910
April 28 2021 44063 341840 1399 297 557 859
April 29 2021 44141 342399 1403 299 582 839
April 30 2021 44216 342980 1410 299 613 827
May 01 2021 44259 343438 1413 302 593 818
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 5 5.3 8.8% 52 0.09% 63 0.1%
10-19 10 10.1 21.1% 125 0.18% 180 0.25%
20-29 9 12.9 26.8% 159 0.15% 216 0.21%
30-39 6 8.1 15.2% 90 0.12% 125 0.16%
40-49 7 7.0 12.8% 76 0.12% 104 0.16%
50-59 4 4.7 8.4% 50 0.08% 67 0.1%
60-69 2 2.7 4.7% 28 0.05% 45 0.08%
70+ 0 1.9 2.2% 13 0.03% 18 0.04%
All ages 43 52.7 100% 593 0.11% 818 0.15%

Wisconsin

Wisconsin cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
April 25 2021 594682 2828164 28969 6756 6178 9374
April 26 2021 595049 2831052 29003 6756 5836 9339
April 27 2021 595864 2833669 29103 6773 5924 9232
April 28 2021 596552 2838104 29182 6807 6094 8991
April 29 2021 597358 2842843 29255 6815 6527 8854
April 30 2021 598147 2846536 29307 6823 6511 8934
May 01 2021 598822 2850492 29382 6841 6560 8882
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 62 53.3 8.5% 559 0.09% 742 0.12%
10-19 178 136.0 21.3% 1396 0.18% 1787 0.24%
20-29 96 104.1 16.6% 1092 0.14% 1475 0.19%
30-39 111 105.0 16% 1050 0.14% 1440 0.19%
40-49 86 92.1 14% 918 0.13% 1277 0.18%
50-59 72 79.4 12.2% 803 0.1% 1117 0.14%
60-69 48 51.7 7.5% 490 0.06% 681 0.09%
70+ 22 26.7 3.8% 252 0.04% 363 0.06%
All ages 675 648.4 100% 6560 0.11% 8882 0.15%

Column

Source: Minnesota’s safe learning plan is very direct, very precise, with scientific basis. Determined on a local level.

Definitions (corresponding / similar to MN plan):

  • 2wk: Two-week case total (most recent 14 days), rate per 10K of county population
  • 2wk10s: Approximate two-week case total, rate per 10K of 10-19 population
  • 2wk20s: Approximate two-week case total, rate per 10K of 20-29 population; since over 50% of students on campus are in early 20s
  • daily7: Daily new-case running average (average over 7 days)
  • posratedaily7 (as a percent): Daily positive-test rate, running average (average over 7 days)

and a set of SUGGESTED GUIDELINES based on the Minnesota reference:

Criteria 2wk Criteria 2wk20s Criteria daily7 Suggestion
> 25 > 30 urge extra caution
> 28 > 45* decreasing consider staying home and watching class recordings (rather than attending in-person) and visit online OH
> 28 > 45* steady to increasing strongly encouraged to stay home and watch class recordings (attend in-person only as absolutely needed) and visit online OH.
> 30 > 50 decreasing ’’ ’’ ’’
> 30 > 50 steady to increasing based on the cited criteria from Minnesota, safety of in-person classes no longer seems supportable

*adjusted to reflect a corresponding proportion of the top cut-off.

Eau Claire

Eau Claire 2wk Eau Claire 2wk10s Eau Claire 2wk20s Eau Claire current daily7 Eau Claire past daily7 Eau Claire posratedaily7
7.8 8.1 10 4.9 8.1 8.3%

Important Resources:

Chippewa

Chippewa 2wk Chippewa current daily7 Chippewa past daily7 Chippewa posratedaily7
9.6 5.3 5.4 14.5%

Barron

Barron 2wk Barron current daily7 Barron past daily7 Barron posratedaily7
19.9 6.9 6.7 26.5%

La Crosse

La Crosse 2wk La Crosse 2wk10s La Crosse 2wk20s La Crosse current daily7 La Crosse past daily7 La Crosse posratedaily7
13.1 33.8 7.5 12.1 4.9 12.6%

Dane

Dane 2wk Dane 2wk10s Dane 2wk20s Dane current daily7 Dane past daily7 Dane posratedaily7
15 25.3 20.8 52.7 70.9 11.2%

Wisconsin

Wisconsin 2wk Wisconsin 2wk10s Wisconsin 2wk20s Wisconsin current daily7 Wisconsin past daily7 Wisconsin posratedaily7
15.3 23.6 19.5 648.4 714.9 14.9%

Important Resources:

Cumulative

Column {data-width=600}

Eau Claire

Chippewa

Barron

La Crosse

Dane

Wisconsin

Column {data-width=200}

Eau Claire

Chippewa

Barron

La Crosse

Dane

Wisconsin

References

Column

Reliable Updated Visuals

Column

Modeling

Column {data-width=600}

Predicting cumulative deaths in state

  • WI correpondence between Cumulative cases and deaths (at time lag)
    • Starting with late May, after daily tests regularly above 6000
[1] "The number of  cumulative deaths, at a lag of 21 days, are approximately 0.8 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.67 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2021-05-23 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 6135"

Column {data-width=600}

Comparing county-wide active case rates in counties with colleges

  • Portage county (Stevens Point): gray
  • Eau Claire county (Eau Claire): blue
  • Dane county (Madison): green
  • La Crosse county (La Crosse): red